Just days ago, crypto markets were gripped by macro-level fear—rising inflation, stalled rate cuts, and an escalating tariff war between the US and China. Today, they’re ripping higher. But with President Trump’s sudden pivot on tariffs, the question dominating investor desks is simple: Is this the beginning of a sustained rally or a dangerous bull trap?
Let’s break down the data, the risks, and the real story behind this latest crypto bounce.
Trump’s Tariff U-Turn: From 145% to 10%?
In a surprise press briefing, President Donald Trump dramatically cooled his stance on China, stating that he was now looking to be “very nice” to Beijing. The 145% tariff wall, which had triggered weeks of market chaos, may now be slashed to just 10%. That’s a complete narrative U-turn—and markets wasted no time reacting.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 800 points. The Nasdaq jumped over 3%, while across Asia, Japan’s Nikkei rallied 2%, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng surged 2.4%.
Why the sharp reversal from Trump? The reality is, US markets had dropped hard in response to tariff fears, and China—exporting just 12% of its goods to the US—wasn’t blinking. With the bond market showing early signs of structural stress, pressure mounted on Trump to pivot, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is said to have played a key role behind the scenes.
But investors should tread carefully here. A drop from 145% to 10% tariffs isn’t guaranteed. There’s every possibility Trump adjusts it only modestly—say down to 50%—while still claiming a win. That kind of misdirection could easily reset the bullish sentiment.
Is the Worst Behind Us?
On the surface, yes. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which spiked to 60 in early April—its highest since 2022—has since cooled. Market internals no longer reflect panic. Institutional risk appetite appears to be stabilising.
But underneath, nothing fundamental has changed.
Economic data continues to weaken. Soft indicators like manufacturing orders have stalled, and we’re beginning to see this show up in hard data—particularly in jobs and retail spending. Inflation is also expected to tick higher in April, May, and June, driven largely by the uncertainty surrounding tariffs.
This means the Federal Reserve remains on hold, likely until at least July, with no interest rate cuts expected in May or June. That puts markets in a kind of policy limbo—less volatile, perhaps, but directionless.
Bitcoin’s Breakout — But Watch the Range
Following Trump’s speech, Bitcoin saw the largest ETF inflow since mid-January—over $936 million, pushing the price above $91,700 and into its old macro range. But this is where things get tricky.
Right now, BTC is trading between $91,700 and $98,900, with the mid-point at $95,700. Back in 2024, similar macro conditions caused BTC to chop between $50,000 and $72,000 for months. Analysts now expect a similar rangebound setup for at least the next 6 to 8 weeks.
Short-term, this could lead to a retest of $86,000 or even $82,000, which is where some high-conviction traders are looking to re-enter.
Alts and Memes: More Juice Left?
While BTC may be stalling, Altcoins and Meme tokens are finding new life.
The TOTAL3 index, which tracks crypto excluding BTC and ETH, just broke out above the $700 billion support zone and is now pushing toward the resistance band between $865 billion and $930 billion.
This suggests further upside potential in Alts, even if majors like BTC and ETH are entering fatigue zones.
Short-term bullish targets for key tokens include:
- ETH: Potential upside to $1,745 before targeting support between $1,230–$1,530.
- SOL: Watch for exhaustion near $140–$148; accumulation zones lie between $110–$130.
- HYPE: Aiming for $18.50–$20.80, with possible re-entry opportunities near $13 or even $10.
Caution is Still King
Despite the euphoria, top-level analysts continue to treat this as a relief rally, not the start of a new bull run. Structural pressures—tariffs, inflation, delayed rate cuts—are very much still in play.
So what’s the playbook?
- Majors: Avoid fresh buys near current levels. BTC above $98,900 would trigger re-evaluation, but we’re not there yet.
- Altcoins: Tactical entries in strong names, but don’t chase. Wait for clear retests.
- Meme tokens: Momentum may continue short-term, but position sizing must be small and well risk-managed.
For those passively investing, Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) into lower support zones could still be the best strategy. High-conviction levels remain:
- BTC: Accumulate below $82,000
- ETH: Rebuild positions between $1,230–$1,530
- SOL: Look for entries between $110–$130
- HYPE: Eye re-entries below $13
Final Thoughts
This is one of the hardest macro environments in years to trade. Trump’s tariff U-turn has injected hope—but also confusion. The market may be cheering the rhetoric, but the uncertainty hasn’t gone anywhere.
For now, patience, tactical positioning, and strict discipline are more important than ever. Rate cuts are likely coming—just not yet. And when they do, the real move might begin. Until then, avoid chasing green candles and stay focused on the range.
Let this rally prove it’s real—then we’ll talk about the next bull cycle.